The UK Eating Out Market in 2026: What the Data Tells Us

We attend a lot of industry events, and Lumina Intelligence’s Food Strategy Forum is one we always make time for. Bringing together some of the sharpest minds in foodservice to share what the data is actually saying, we came away from the March session with a clear picture of where the eating out market is heading in 2026 and, just as importantly, who’s being left behind. Now that we’re deeper into 2026, it’s a good moment to reflect on how those insights are already playing out.

Growth, but not everywhere

The UK eating out market is forecast to grow by 2.4% this year. That sounds encouraging until you look at where that growth is actually coming from.

Coffee shops are leading the way at 3.8% compound annual growth, driven by premium formats and all-day missions. Travel and transport hubs are close behind at 3.7%, with motorway services and airports now functioning as proper food destinations. Fast food is holding steady at 2.9%, due to its success in innovation.

Restaurants and pubs, on the other hand, are forecast to see a 1.9% decline in like-for-like turnover. April’s business rate rises are set to hit restaurants particularly hard, with a 15% increase and no equivalent relief to the discount offered to pubs, resulting in closures which we are already seeing.

The context matters too. GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026, inflation is falling but consumer confidence remains at -19. People are still going out, but they’re choosing more carefully.

Quality is doing more of the work

One of the most striking findings from the day: 78% of consumers now say they choose quality over value when eating out, up nearly six percentage points. That doesn’t mean price has stopped mattering. It means people are being more deliberate about where they spend, and when they do commit, they want the experience to deliver.

Quickservice restaurants are benefiting most. Brands like Tortilla and SushiDog are winning on consistent quality and ingredient transparency, while higher-end chains have introduced value-led options without losing their positioning. The brands doing it well are the ones treating quality and value as a spectrum rather than a trade-off.

Health is woven into this too. Fibre is forecast to overtake protein as the headline functional attribute in 2026, with terms like “fibremaxxing” gaining real traction on TikTok. Operators including M&S Simply Food and Itsu are already building this into their formats.

Where food-to-go is heading

Food-to-go now accounts for 24% of all eating and drinking out occasions in the UK. The return to office working, particularly in London, is driving frequency. Mondays, once quiet, are now a significant day for food-to-go occasions as hybrid workers head back in.

Four themes are shaping where innovation is going.

Customisation is accelerating, with a 60% increase in customisable menu items across quick service. Wagamama’s build-your-own donburi bowls and Domino’s sub-brand launches are good examples of this in action.

Global flavours are front and centre in new product development. Korean, South American and Southeast Asian influences are leading the way, with sandwich and wrap formats being used as discovery vehicles for ingredients and cuisines that feel exciting without being inaccessible.

Texture in drinks is becoming a genuine sales driver. Starbucks’ velvety foam formats and McDonald’s donut crumble latte show how dessert-influenced sensory experiences translate well to the grab-and-go occasion.

Brunch has established itself as a proper daypart rather than a weekend luxury. Health-led and creative brunch formats are consistently pulling the 25-to-34 demographic, who are driving much of the overall market’s growth.

What it means for your brand

The eating out market in 2026 isn’t one story. Brands and operators that are clear on which channel opportunity they’re pursuing, and disciplined about executing against it, are the ones moving forward.

For manufacturers, that means being honest about which channels are actually growing and making sure range, format and messaging are aligned to what those channels need. For operators, it means finding your position on the quality-value spectrum and holding it, even when costs are making that harder.

If you’d like to talk through what these trends mean for your brand or business, we’d love to hear from you. Get in touch here