It’s been a challenging time for the pub market; but how is it fairing and what are the trends pubs need to consider to drive growth? Here are our take outs from last month’s Lumina Q2 Food Strategy Forum.

While the overall eating out market is growing, the pub market will also grow, but its percentage share will slide slightly, with an annual growth rate of +1.9% in 2024, projected to reach +2.2% by 2028. Encouragingly, pub outlet closures are expected to level off by 2027-2028 which contributed to this share loss. Top pub brands like JD Wetherspoon and Marston’s are showing net outlet growth – so the market is looking optimistic. However, legislation, such as EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility which makes producers financially responsible for the full cost of managing their packaging waste at the end of its life) and alcohol duty, have both put a massive pressure on pubs and could create added complexities for the sector .

Key trends and growth drivers for pubs:

  • Sport as a Footfall Driver: Watching sports is a significant and growing reason for pub visits, increasing by +1.4% to 7.5% as a share of all pub visits. Darts, specifically, was highlighted as delivering “big wins” for pubs with the European and World Championship driving footfall, as well as the F1, and football. The FIFA World Cup 26™ could open a huge opportunity next year if late-night licensing can be secured.
  • Reimagining the Pub Experience: This involves adapting to the “new social,” which Lumina characterised as “inclusive, intentional, and early”. Pubs are focusing on estate restructuring and format differentiation to unlock future growth, such as Marston’s format-led growth strategy and Stonegate’s data-led segmentation which has seen them develop their Heritage Pubs format. A collection of traditional, family-friendly pubs focused on pub classics and Sunday roasts, with a cosy and rural setting. Stonegate also has a Pubsmiths format, which offers a livelier, drinks-led experience with small plates and shareable dishes in town and city locations, enabling them to cater for different consumer demographic needs.
  • Data and Digital as a Growth Enabler: Digital loyalty programmes are seen as a way to reshape how pubs retain, reward, and re-engage guests. Furthermore, tapping into TikTok and the power of social media is crucial for engagement, as evidenced by TikTok’s 4.4 billion global video views for #pubtok .

So in summary, the eating out market is characterised by a very real focus on value, quality, and health. Younger and affluent consumers are driving growth. To succeed, the eating out concept needs to be reimagined and immersive, with pubs especially adapting and growing through experiences and digital engagement.

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Gemma Felstead
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