On the hottest day of the year so far, myself and jellybean Account Director, Clare Freeman headed to London for the Lumina Q2 Food Strategy Forum. Hosted at the Everyman Cinema – Kings Cross, the fully packed session provided an insightful look into the eating out market, as well as what consumers want, the pub market and ingredient innovation. The Lumina panel walked us through the ongoing challenges, as well as the significant opportunities, for growth in 2025 and beyond.

Read on for our summary of an insightful and very informative session.

Market Updates

The eating out market continues to navigate a complex environment, with businesses primarily concerned about the rising cost of labour (54% of leaders identifying it as their top challenge), followed by rising food and ingredient costs (43%) and declining consumer spending (29%).

Understandably, consumer confidence was down due to April’s cost increases which saw household bills, council tax, stamp duty, and Trump tariffs rising. Because of this, overall uncertainty is expected to delay both consumers and businesses in making major decisions. More positively, inflation is anticipated to ease, however the average wage growth remains relatively flat.

Despite these challenges, the UK eating out market is forecast to grow +2.4% YOY from 2025 to 2028, reaching £108,703 million. Food-to-go-led channels have been driving this growth, with sandwich, bakery, coffee shops and drive-thrus all earning visits. Most affected are restaurants and pubs, which must “double down” to appeal to the 76% of consumers who are value driven when it comes to eating out.

Main Drivers and Trends

To succeed in what is a challenging market, Lumina highlighted four key pillars driving growth:

  • AI Revolution: We are set to enter a “golden era” with an AI-first foodservice sector that will future-proof the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) and food to go sectors especially, helping them to stay both responsive and relevant. Whether it’s analysing the weather and subsequent footfall (Honi Poke), monitoring equipment usage (McDonald’s) or your cravings (Papa John’s) – AI will become a core part of strategy and operations.
  • Differentiation: Service-led operators can prosper by offering additional reasons to visit, emphasising differentiation and excellence to appeal to these value driven consumers. This could include seasonal and limited offers, brand collabs, competitive socialising, events (like live music), zoning to cater for different demographical needs, increased professionalism, expanding local/British produce, and specialising in food/beverage categories.
  • Format Diversification: Brands are exploring new formats. Food-to-Go operator, Pret, is trialling a made-to-order format at new sites, with more floor space given to seating and children’s areas. There’s also going to be a trend towards “Format Fluidity” in 2026, the dayparts and locations operators experience success in will continue to change, with daytime and mid-week dining driving more visits than traditional evening sessions.
  • Brand Identity & Loyalty: Legacy brands are undergoing “resets” to regain market relevance, as seen with Prezzo. Loyalty initiatives are evolving to be “smarter, sharper, and more emotional,” operators are enjoying repeat visits by tapping into habit loops and consumers earning quick wins to build loyalty – the get your 10th cup of coffee free offer is outdated. Operators are also diversifying those opportunities to win more eating occasions, extending loyalty schemes from the high street to home delivery, as Wagamama has implemented with Deliveroo.

In summary, resilience and success won’t happen by standing still, operators will need to be bold to reach new levels, and it all starts with AI.

The 2025 Consumer

Consumers are increasingly shaping the market, with easing financial pressures (and good weather) benefiting the eating and drinking out market. This has led to increased penetration (from 53.1% in April 2023 to 58.1% in April 2025) and visit frequency (from 1.43% to 1.52% over the same period).

Key consumer demographics and behaviours:

  • Age Dominance: 25-34 year olds are dominating the eating out market, showing significant growth through both penetration and visit frequency. Unlike other groups, young millennials are considered to have a higher disposable income – being mortgage and child-free – and operators need to lean into this cash-rich generation.
  • Income Correlation: High income levels were also linked with changes in eating out behaviour, especially with higher affluent consumers earning +ÂŁ100k (ABC1) living in city centres, and in particular, London driving growth. The analysis showed London accounts for 16.4% of all eating occasions and 19.5% of city centres.
  • Value and Quality: Good value for money (26.2%) and quality of ingredients (13.4%) are the top growing reasons for choosing an eating establishment. Healthy food options are also increasing in importance, with 75.2% of consumers stating they are “Very Quality Led” and 43.7% are “Very Health Conscious.” For operators, finding this balance will be key, as no matter the income level, value, health and ingredients are driving purchase.
  • Motivation Shift: Our reasons for eating and drinking are changing too, “Relaxation” is becoming a larger motivator for occasions – socialising remains an important reason, but relaxing is growing by +0.7% yoy. With consumers looking “to wind down or relax”, lunch, dinner, and drink dayparts are all feeling an effect and, “being out and about” is being de-prioritised as a reason to eat out.
  • Promotions and Innovation: Rewards and promotions remain key in this time, with 35.3% of occasions involving a promotion, and loyalty card/app schemes now the top promotion type. But it’s not just deals, consumers are also seeking innovative and different dishes. The everyday needs to be exceptional to maintain interest, with popular offerings such as burgers and sandwiches highlighted as losing share in lunch and dinner occasions, creating space for new offerings. Though alcohol consumption is in decline, there are opportunities for quality-driven cocktails (+1.5% in alcohol occasions), with operators such as Indian Restaurant, Manthams Mayfair pairing cocktails to their menu. Health-led drinks like fruit juices and smoothies (+0.9% in non-alcohol occasions), are becoming popular too, driven by the consumer demand for healthy options. So much so, bakery operator, Greggs has recently added Plenish Shots alongside its sausage rolls.

So in summary, the eating out market is characterised by a very real focus on value, quality, and health. Younger and affluent consumers are driving growth. To succeed, the eating out concept needs to be reimagined and immersive, adapting and growing through experiences and digital engagement.

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Gemma Felstead
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