Simon Stenning has spent the last 18 years predicting the future of foodservice. His latest insights reveal an industry adapting fast to changing appetites, tighter wallets and a population that’s simultaneously more health-conscious and more indulgent than ever. Here’s what you need to know.

I recently attended a presentation by Simon Stenning, founder of Future Foodservice, who delivered a masterclass on where British eating is headed. No crystal balls involved – just careful analysis of demographics, economics, technology, and consumer behaviour. And the picture he painted is both challenging and full of opportunity.

The GLP-1 Reality Check

Let’s start with the numbers. Around 2.5 million GLP-1 kits (weight-loss medication) were sold this year. That’s roughly 5% of the population with significantly reduced appetites. As Simon put it: “that’s 5% of your volume, just gone.”

Restaurants are responding. Town in Covent Garden now offers fried sage leaves drizzled in hot honey for a fiver – which according to Simon are actually quite nice (although just as a snack!). Though he did question their 200g rump steak “for people who aren’t eating as much.” Fair point. But some responses have been, well, ambitious. Heston’s created an eight-mouthful “mindful experience” at The Fat Duck for £270. Otto’s, famous for their four-hour £500 feast, now offers a “small appetite” menu featuring Scottish lobster and caviar for £240. Simon’s deadpan reaction: “When you’re not eating. Okay.”

Protein Everywhere (But Maybe Not Forever)

The protein boom shows no signs of slowing. Tortilla has smart protein pots, Starbucks does protein cold foam, and there’s protein in everything from popcorn (courtesy of Khloé Kardashian)to pasta sauce. But Simon reckons we’re approaching “peak protein.” The next wave? Fibre and gut health. The microbiome is becoming a genuine talking point, and smart operators are already pivoting. In fact, we called it back in July with Clare’s blog ‘Is Fibre the New Protein’.

The challenge? Most protein-enhanced products are ultra-processed foods (UPFs), which creates an interesting contradiction as consumers become more concerned about what they’re eating.

The Nine F’s: Foodservice’s Future Framework

Simon has identified nine mega-trends shaping the industry:

  1. Fermented

Massively underused in foodservice despite the proven gut health benefits. There are some embracing fermentation as Brother Marcus does kefir fried chicken, but it seems this is one that is a slow burn. Kombucha in bars? Barely happening. Simon sees real potential here. But sauerkraut might need a rebrand to really take off.

  1. Fiery

British palates are heating up. Dave’s Hot Chicken makes customers sign waivers for their Reaper sauce. Simon tried it once. His advice? “I’d go hot or extra hot next time. I wouldn’t go Reaper.”

But it’s not just nuclear heat – hot-and-sweet combinations are everywhere. Hot honey on pizza, candied jalapeños, Tajín (the Mexican lime-chilli mix) appearing in drinks and dishes.

  1. Fine Eating

Fast food is getting better; fine dining is getting more relaxed. Dove does off-menu burgers that rival gastropubs. Crunch is Deliveroo’s number one restaurant for their katsu sandos.

And then there’s Fat Pats in Manchester – operating from a back-alley hatch, with people driving from Sheffield to queue for a sandwich. One customer told Simon he planned to eat it in his car in the car park before driving home. That’s dedication… and the power of TikTok trends.

  1. Far-Flung

Japanese cuisine is now the third most-opened restaurant type in London, while Georgian, Congolese and Trinidadian restaurants are all finding audiences too. World cuisine isn’t exotic anymore, it’s mainstream.

Simon loves the creativity of Puppa-dum, doing Indian street food in jacket potatoes and Three Uncles serving Cantonese roast beef as sandwiches – once it might have been called fusion but now it’s just creativity, or as Unilever has coined it ‘Global Local’.

  1. Flavour

Expectations are rising. The Island in King’s Cross serves duck and mussel skewers, squid and ‘nduja, lamb belly and clam. Unusual combinations that sing out from the menu.

Even Pret (where Simon used to work) is highlighting flavours: umami-rich togarashi, smoky chargrilled chickpeas, Mexican black bean mole. Though he drew the line at their “hand-massaged kale.”

  1. Filmed

Social media is the kingmaker. Philip Conticini’s giant croissants, Fallow’s breakfast croissant muffin, Fortitude Bakehouse’s beignets – all succeeding partly because they photograph brilliantly but mainly because they captured the imagination of food influencers who sent them viral.

  1. Feeling

Food that makes you feel better, physically or mentally. The “pleasure principle” – small indulgent treats, like Dark Sugars’ hot chocolate, that cost less than a cocktail but lift your spirits.

Also, genuinely healthy food that doesn’t taste like punishment. Simon hopes Leon rediscovers this sweet spot as they enter a new era.

  1. Friendly

Sustainability without shouting about it. Best example: Levy’s stadium burger replaced 30% of beef with mushrooms without announcing it. Why? Because it tastes great. That’s the dream – invisible sustainability.

Simon was less impressed with worthy but unsuccessful attempts. Silo had tubs of ferments on display – now closed. Native got praise for its waste reduction intentions but neither has thrived. As Simon noted as regards Silo, “brown sludge, not so sure.”

  1. Functional

Nootropics, adaptogens, functional mushrooms, they are everywhere. Though Simon pointed out lion’s mane is becoming like manuka honey: “More products claim to contain it than could possibly exist.”

Most interesting: Gaba Labs creating zero-alcohol drinks that target the same brain receptors as alcohol. Simon’s tried them: “Pretty good, slightly different taste.” I’d add to that InTune’s CBD range (more of which here) and IMPOSSIBREW for a beer that relaxes without the booze.

The Tenth F: ‘a-Ffordability’

Despite wage growth exceeding inflation, consumers still feel squeezed. Meal deals are proliferating. Pizza Express is doing £5.95 pizza-and-drink deals outside Tesco stores – now that’s value!

Simon’s cautionary tale: a beautiful Yorkshire Dales gastropub with Tournedos Rossini for £49 as the first item on their menu board. “Not sending the right signals about being affordable.” Unsurprisingly it went into administration.

Meanwhile, £1-per-oyster deals are bringing back Victorian-era affordability (when oysters were cheap food from riverbeds). Though Simon noted Georgina Davies ate 60 oysters in 60 minutes in Whitstable, adding: “I wouldn’t have liked to travel back on the train.”

The Polarisation Challenge

The market is splitting. At one end, value-driven concepts like Detroit Slims doing innovative pizza in a fast-casual format. At the other, experiential dining like Punk Royale is charging £255 for “unadulterated decadence.”

Simon raved about The Ritz – with its two Michelin stars, offering tableside gueridon trollies and duck à la presse. “If you want one amazing meal in your lifetime, you’ve got to go.”

The tricky bit? The middle ground. Simon’s solution: comfort. French bistros like Bouchon Racine (impossible to book) are thriving with honest hospitality and good food.

Specific Trends Worth Watching

Rotisserie Revolution
Cooking over live fire is a long-term driver, not a TikTok fad. Meatopia and similar festivals are packed with people wanting the spectacle and flavour.

The Beef Crisis
Prices are up 25%. Wetherspoons removed steaks entirely, as they couldn’t hit quality at the price point. But Blacklock is succeeding with clever cuts, and Sunday roasts remain sacred. Would you believe Toby Carvery is still Britain’s most-loved restaurant chain.

Fun fact: Guy Ritchie’s pub is now taking Sunday lunch bookings a year in advance. A. Year. That’s how popular it has been.

Fried Chicken Continues
Despite health concerns, demand isn’t slowing. American chains like Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A are expanding, alongside UK brands, with even that Saturday night staple, Chicken Cottage, opening three more sites.

Pizza’s Not Done
Pizza Hut closed half its estate (Simon’s take: “The headline should have been ‘Is Pizza Hut still here?'”), but pizza is thriving. Detroit Slims, Sanco in Newcastle (press a button, pizza keeps coming), and Crisp are all innovating in this space. Great news for me – I love a pizza.

Tacos: The New Tapas
Simon’s calling it: “A taqueria bar doing beers and tacos is going to be a big part of the future.” Great value, shareable, flexible. El Pastor and others are leading the charge. Again, you won’t hear any complaints from me, I’m all about tacos and but I’d swap the beer for a spicy marg.

Bakeries Replace Coffee Shops
Done right, anyway. Pret’s attempt is in Simon’s words “rubbish.” But Fortitude Bakehouse and Gooey in Manchester are showing how it’s done with “affordable luxury.” Offering indulgent treats and coffee in a super-inviting setting.

How We’re Drinking Differently

Beer volume is declining dramatically. But we’re not drinking less, we’re drinking differently.

“Zebra striping” (alternating alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks) and “coasting” (lower-strength drinks) are common behaviours. The new trend: Guinness 60/40 – mixing regular and zero for 2.7% ABV.

£5 margaritas from Slush Puppy machines are working (I mean what’s not to like!!). Artesian is putting blue cheese in Negronis (um not sure, but I’ll give it a go). And Gaba Labs is creating functional zero-alcohol drinks using science rather than just removing alcohol. Innovation is rife but there is still some way to go before low-and-no options are as prevalent on menus as alcoholic drinks – but it’s coming!

An interesting observation was that pre-mix cocktails in cans like Moth and Funkin are a surprise success in care homes. Catering to those who might have a drinks cabinet at their disposal but still enjoy an occasional G&T.

The Daytime Opportunity

Simon’s passionate about this: the over-55s have money and want to go out – just earlier (very sensible I say). Stonegate’s second busiest period is 5-7pm on a Saturday. Whilst The Caterer reported that 6.12pm is now the new most popular booking time. These customers want readable menus, reasonable noise levels and appropriate portions but they are by no means sad soup and a roll OAPs!

“These are grannies with discretionary income,” noted one audience member. “They’ll take younger families into these environments if you get it right.”

With changing inheritance tax rules, there’ll be more “skiing” (Spending the Kids’ Inheritance). Smart operators will cater to this growing demographic who want great food on their terms.

The Allergen Situation

Simon claimed progress; an audience member strongly disagreed, citing weekly hospitalisations and people being refused service.

The truth likely sits between. Top-end operations handle it professionally (Jockey Club had zero incidents this year), but smaller independents can be “amateur,” particularly franchises. It remains a critical challenge for the industry and one that is literally life or death.

AI: Not Ready Yet

Simon broke an AI drive-through at Popeyes by asking: “What’s your favourite dish?” It couldn’t answer. He went back a year later – it’s better but still limited. When he asked “how spicy is spicy?” it blanked him and jumped to “would you like a meal deal?”

His verdict: “AI is amazing back of house – marketing, creativity, summarising. But we’re still a long way away” from front-of-house applications that interact with customers.

You can read more on AI in foodservice and hospitality here & here.

The Real Message: Reinvention Required

Simon’s January report is titled “Reinventing Hospitality” because that’s what’s needed. The reality is there are no growth drivers from the Government, so businesses must create reasons for consumers to choose eating out over staying home (which is cheaper).

The middle ground needs rebuilding through better value, smart trend adoption, and genuine differentiation. Brands like Pizza Pilgrims, Flat Iron, and Dishoom are expanding because they do something distinctive while delivering real value.

Simon’s key predictions:

  • Consumers may eat out less but will eat better when they do
  • Personalisation remains challenging (“you can customise, you can’t personalise”)
  • Global cuisines are now mainstream – embrace them confidently
  • Sustainability done invisibly (not worthy brown sludge) will win – more of which here
  • Natural ingredients and moving away from UPFs should be promoted as its already happening in foodservice

What This Means for You

Understanding these trends isn’t about chasing every fad. It’s about recognising the fundamental shifts in how, when, why, and what people eat.

The winners will balance indulgence with wellness, affordability with experience, tradition with innovation. They’ll create food worth leaving home for – whether that’s a £5 sandwich from a back-alley hatch or a £255 tasting menu with gueridon trollies, there’s a consumer and occasion for both.

The future of British foodservice isn’t being written in London boardrooms. It’s being created by operators who understand their customers, deliver genuine value, and aren’t afraid to do things differently.

Just maybe avoid the Reaper sauce if you value your taste buds! 😉

Finally, a big thank you to Simon for sharing his take on the market. For more information on Future Foodservice visit https://www.futurefoodservice.com/

If you want to work with an agency that has its finger on the pulse of the market to help you succeed in foodservice. Get in touch today!  

 

Susan Wickes
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