The UK out-of-home coffee scene is brewing stronger than ever. With a projected ÂŁ6.1 billion in turnover for 2024/25, the market has grown +4.1% YoY pushing the coffee category to 7.1% of all eating-out spend (up from 6.6% in 2022).This growth is fuelled by physical expansion with 12,229 outlets now operating nationwide growing the channel by +2.4%.

Premiumisation Reigns

Consumers are trading up. Premium and artisan-style experiences dominate growth, with turnover climbing across these standout brands between December 2024 and December 2025:

  • WatchHouse: +38%
  • Black Sheep Coffee: +28%
  • Blank Street: +27%

This trend highlights a shift toward quality and experience even in the face of a price rise of +17% since 2022.

Iced & RTD: No Longer Seasonal

Cold coffee formats are no longer just a summer fling. Iced and ready-to-drink (RTD) options are now year-round staples especially popular among younger health-conscious social-media savvy consumers. A case in point: Black Sheep Coffee saw a +227% YoY surge in iced drink sales after its spring launch while matcha-lemonade offerings spiked +315%!

Sustainability & Local Sourcing Win Hearts

Consumers aren’t just sipping, they’re caring. There’s a growing demand for ethical sourcing and locally inspired ingredients particularly when it comes to indulgent or treat-oriented purchases. Quality, choice and local provenance are high on the consumers’ checklist.

Hybrid Habits: Home vs. Café

Coffee routines are evolving. Weekdays are about value and convenience with home brews or to-go the preference while cafés are increasingly the go-to for weekend treats or social hangs. Cafés are extending into new evening day-parts to drive revenue per square foot.

Who’s Leading the UK Coffee Game

  • Costa still rules the roost with 2,663 outlets and 38.3% market share although it dipped –0.9ppt from December 2024.
  • Starbucks is gaining momentum with +4.7% outlet growth, now at 1410 outlets giving them 18.7% share (+0.4ppt).
  • Caffè Nero and Pret maintain strong footholds at 9.1% and 7.0% respectively.
  • Greggs impresses capturing 9% of weekly Out-Of-Home coffee occasions by balancing value and taste.

Meanwhile Challenger brands on a roll include:

  • Gail’s Artisan Bakery: +192 outlets (+25.5%)
  • Black Sheep Coffee: +122 outlets (+28.4%)
  • Esquires: +88 outlets (+25.7%)
  • Little Dessert Shop: +64 outlets (+30.6%)
  • Knoops: +40 outlets (+66.7%)

What Lies Ahead?

Expect continued growth via:

  • Strategic outlet expansion especially in high-traffic zones like travel hubs
  • Ongoing innovation with premium health-forward and visually appealing products (think matcha everything)
  • Blending quality and novelty to lure footfall frequency and spend

How can coffee operators big and small capitalise?

Tap the Premium Pulse: Elevate your offering with signature quality-led experiences that feel indulgent and Instagrammable.

Chill with RTD & Iced: Cold formats are not just a novelty they’re a growth driver. Think bold flavours functional appeals and viral visuals.

Lead with Ethics: Consumers want to feel good. Sustainability transparency and local sourcing are powerful differentiators.

Be Where It Happens: Strategic outlet growth especially franchising in underserved locations or hubs can expand reach fast.

Own New Moments: From morning routines to late-night treat spots, position your brand for multiple coffee moments per day.

In short: UK coffee drinkers are trading up, pivoting to chilled innovation and rewarding operators who combine quality convenience and conscience. To get a deeper dive visit www.lumina-intelligence.com to purchase the full report.

Source: Lumina Intelligence (lumina-intelligence.com)

 

Susan Wickes
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