Pre-Covid the food to go (F2G) sector was outstripping the market. A hub for innovation and an ever-growing sector with players as diverse as McDonalds and LEON. MCA’s latest Food to Go Conference looked at how the sector has been affected by the past year and its prospects for recovering in 2021 and beyond. Here are our top takeouts from the day:

  • 2021 saw two thirds the level of trading of 2019 due to Covid restrictions across the F2G sector.
  • Lumina predict a 32% growth from 2020 to 2021.
  • F2G as a sector did far better than others during Covid, with the ability to tap into click and collect, kerb side collect, delivery and kiosk style service.
  • Moving into 2021 it is also well positioned to bounce back, due to the low ticket and low contact nature of the sector. Not to mention its fit to today’s demands for all day meals and snacks on the go.
  • In 2020 the top ten F2G brands grew their market share of the sector (Tesco, Greggs, Sainsbury’s, McDonalds, M&S, Co-op, Subway, KFC &Premier).
  • In 2020 F2G innovated to cover all day parts including heat at home options and dinner options. With modest expansion in fast food, bakery, and coffee shops.
  • Suburban and neighbourhood sites are set to be best placed to recover quickly, with city centre sites hit harder by WFH/flexi working.
  • Lumina predict that with flexi working office days may see consumers trading up to more treat F2G options on the (on average) 2.8 days they are in the office.
  • Tough times are ahead with retail rent debt >£2bn, a new hike in the national living wage on the horizon and HFSS legislation due in 2022 all on top of the rent arrears and decimated takings of 2020.
  • New missions have arisen from restrictions with ‘coffee walks’ in growth, as two out of five food to go occasions are drinks only. Whilst picnicking is likely to see an uptake as it did last summer, as we come into Spring, with consumers buying food to go like pizza to enjoy in the park with friends. Indeed, Morrison’s has developed picnic platters to capitalise on this trend.
  • Omni channel is the phrase of the moment, with brands looking to maximise all revenue streams. One example is Pret moving into at home bake-off, with their heat at home croissants.
  • The pandemic has accelerated the use of technology to drive minimal contact transactions with 56% agreeing or strongly agreeing that the use of technology, such as QR codes and apps to limit contact, makes them feel for confident.
  • 25% of consumers looked for more promotional deals on their phones in 2020 than the previous year showing how value driven consumers have become.
  • Delivery has boomed and looks set to continue post pandemic.
  • Subscription models such as Pret’s coffee subscription have evolved to include more items and many other operators are following suit in an attempt to drive customer loyalty and habit.
  • Recovery is expected to be around £1.1bn in 2021 rising to £1.6bn in 2022 for the F2G sector.
  • Dark kitchens have opened brands’ eyes to the opportunities around virtual brands and separating delivery from dine-in, as well as sub-letting areas to other brands.
  • For operators like LEON the pandemic has given them the chance to focus on their learning and development of staff, something they value highly.
  • Operators are able to reach areas previously untapped via delivery and dark kitchens (or cloud kitchens – a new one on me!) and property strategies are likely to be impacted by the opportunities in the suburbs, as consumers continue to shop local and work from home, whilst lower rents in the city may tempt operators hitherto unseen in town centres into more central locations near stations to drive footfall.
  • Grocery brand extensions like Greggs in Iceland and Wasabi Bento Boxes in Sainsbury’s have offered up additional revenue streams for brands.
  • Differentiation is key and those businesses that survive will be leaner and more efficient.
  • Some predict the City will take 2-4 years to get back to its previous trading levels.
  • Government support and intervention will determine the number of casualties from this crisis, with the wider market likely to see 30% of restaurants unable to reopen. When the moratorium ends will Government step in to help or see businesses go to the wall – we will have to wait and see.
  • Deliveroo has seen accelerated growth with 20,000 new restaurants added and diversification into grocery delivery. They moved fast to onboard during the pandemic and have looked at what operators need since. Developing their ‘Signature’ product – effectively a white label product where brands can create their own delivery and ordering web or app platform via Deliveroo with Nando’s the first to launch on Signature.

As ever the conference offered a comprehensive view into the market sector with some high-level speakers and great insight. Thanks to the MCA and all the day’s line-up. To find out more about MCA visit www.mca-insight.com/